Geographia Polonica (2006) vol. 79, iss. 1

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Forecasting of states of ecosystems in protected areas on the basis of a comprehensive digital vegetation map (as exemplified by Poland's Bory Tucholskie National Park)

Jan Marek Matuszkiewicz, Jerzy Solon

Geographia Polonica (2006) vol. 79, iss. 1, pp. 65-94

Abstract

This paper presents: (1) a method by which to forecast future states of ecosystems onthe basis of deterministic models of development pathways, (2) necessary data to achieve this,and (3) an application of the above method to Poland’s Bory Tucholskie National Park. The threerequired datasets to predict vegetational states were a complex digital map of potential 1 and actualvegetation, scenarios concerning future anthropogenic impacts on vegetation and habitats,and general models of vegetation development. The chosen study area is shown to feature processesof vegetation transformation, such as degeneration, regeneration, restitution, succession,slow evolution from type to type, stabilization and fluctuation. The three scenarios applied entailed:(1) the development of plant communities in conditions of a stable habitat and persistenthuman impact; (2) fully spontaneous 2 development of vegetation in unchanged habitats and freeof human impact; (3) full achievement of a conservation plan’s recommendations. The resultsof modelling future states of vegetation show that regeneration and evolution will prevail as aresult of the first and second scenarios, resulting in noticeable changes in spatial and typologicaldiversity of vegetation, whilst regeneration and stabilization will be dominant processes accordingto the third scenario.

Keywords: potential vegetation, actual vegetation, dynamic circles of substitute communities, forecast, vegetation dynamics, National Park, Poland

Jan Marek Matuszkiewicz [jan.mat@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-818 Warsaw, Twarda 51/55, Poland
Jerzy Solon [j.solon@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-818 Warsaw, Twarda 51/55, Poland