Geographia Polonica (1998) vol. 71

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Regional climate scenarios and their applications

Małgorzata Liszewska, Marzena Osuch

Geographia Polonica (1998) vol. 71, pp. 39-56

Abstract

In the first part of the paper various approaches to the formulation of regional climate scenarios are described. In the second part an example of a climate scenario for Poland based on results from the ECHAM1/LSG general circulation transient model is presented. Two perturbed runs of the model are considered: A — "business as usual" and D — "accelerated policies". The hydrological regime of Polish catchments in changed climate conditions is evaluated using the CLIRUN 31 watershed model. Some of the results are discussed.

Keywords: regional climate scenarios, general circulation models, global climate change, downscaling, water balance model, hydrological impact assessment

Małgorzata Liszewska, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences Księcia Janusza 64, 01-452 Warszawa, Poland
Marzena Osuch, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences Księcia Janusza 64, 01-452 Warszawa, Poland