Geographia Polonica (1996) vol. 67

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Understanding and assessments of some aspects of climate variation in Poland

Krzysztof Kożuchowski

Geographia Polonica (1996) vol. 67, pp. 39-58

Abstract

This paper discusses the output of Polish climatologists dealing with climate changes. Some results of the studies carried out by A. Pietkiewicz (1889), R. Merecki (1914), J.P. Rychlinski (1923), W. Gorczyñski (1915), H. Arctowski (1934), J. Lambor (1954), E. Romer (1947), W. Okolowicz (1948) et al. are reported.Climatic forecasts for Poland are presented (with the development of the "greenhouse effect" taken into account). These assume that with doubled CO2 concen-tration air temperature in Poland will rise by 2-5°C (Fig. 1). The results of forecasts concerning precipitation are diverse.Circulation factors take part in forming climate fluctuations. The paper presents a 500 hPa configuration determining thermal and precipitation anomalies in Poland (Fig. 2). The duration of circulation epochs and development stages of continental and oceanic features of Poland's climate were compared (Table 1).The analysis of many-year meteorological observations reveals quasi-cyclic climate fluctuations whose spectrum ranges from 2, 3-4, 6, 8, 11, 30, 80 and 180-year periods. The two latter cycles — "secular" and "bisecular" — determine falling temperature trends for the nearest future. On the basis of the observed temperature fluctuations their relationship with the 11-year solar cycle was found (Fig. 3).Research problems concerning the scenario of climate changes for the nearest decades were listed.

Keywords: climatic change, global warming, climate forecasts, climatic cycles, atmospheric circulation

Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland