Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2

Papers in Global Change IGBP, No. 7

Preface

Foreword

Krzysztof Kożuchowski, Joanna Wibig

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 5-6 | Full text

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Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland
Joanna Wibig, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Biology and Earth Science, University of Lodz Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland

Articles

Trends to changes in seasonal aspects of the climate in Poland

Krzysztof Kożuchowski, Jan Degirmendżić, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Joanna Wibig

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 7-24 | Full text

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Abstract:

The study details the results of a search for changes in the annual rhythms for atmospheric pressure, air temperature and precipitation in Poland in the 19th and 20th cen-turies. In regard to atmospheric pressure, a reduction in the component amplitude of the annual cycle was noted. Values for annual amplitude of temperature exhibited a downward trend, as did data for the lengths of the seasons with temperatures below zero or in excess of 19°C. In turn, there was an upward trend for the duration of periods with temperatures several degrees above freezing or in the range 14-19°C. The most marked long-term upward trend to temperature was that noted for the five days 11-15 January, which have seen temperatures rise by as much as 4°C in the last decade. Annual courses for precipitation have demonstrated development of the half-year cyclical component responsible for relatively high winter pre-cipitation. Analysis of several time series has allowed for the deducing of decreasing con-tinentality of climate in Poland, a marked warming in the winter-spring period and a general weakening of seasonal contrasts regarding the climate.

Keywords: changes in air temperature and precipitation

Krzysztof Kożuchowski [kkozuchowski1@wp.pl], Department of Environment Dynamics and Bioclimatology, University of Łódź, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland
Jan Degirmendżić, Department of Environmental Dynamics and Bioclimatology, Faculty of Biology and Earth Science, University of Lodz Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland
Krzysztof Fortuniak, Zakład Meteorologii i Klimatologii, Uniwersytet Łódzki, Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland
Joanna Wibig, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Biology and Earth Science, University of Lodz Lipowa 81, 90-568 Łódź, Poland

The dynamics to selected extreme climatic events in Poland

Tadeusz Niedźwiedź

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 25-40 | Full text

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The article presents the variability to selected extreme climatic phenomena in Poland in the second half of the 20th century. The main attention is paid to the search for exceptional values for indicators or trends that might be regarded as effects of global warm-ing. Among the circulation indicators considered are the variability to the influx of Arctic and tropical air masses in the period 1951-1999, as well as the numbers of days with fronts. In turn, elaborated for the period 1966-1999 was the variability in absolute maxima and minima for pressure, as well as extreme values for pressure tendency, and the occurrence of very strong winds. The greatest changes were found to have occurred in the case of extremes of temperature: from 1982 onwards in the case of absolute maxima and from 1973 on in the case of absolute minima and amplitudes of temperature. These generally attest to an increase in the oceanicity of the Polish climate. In the case of extreme precipitation events, a transition to a rather wetter phase of climate has been noted since 1995. However, there is no sign of any departure for any of the elements studied that has exceeded the values typical for fluctuations of climate in the 20th century, and could therefore be taken as indicating a per-manent change in the climate.

Keywords: climatic change, extreme climatic events, Poland

Tadeusz Niedźwiedź, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia Będzińska 60,41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Borowego 14, 30-215 Kraków, Poland.

Changes in the intensity and frequency of occurrence of droughts in Poland (1891-1995)

Przemysław Mager, Maria Kuźnicka, Małgorzata Kępińska--Kasprzak, Ryszard Farat

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 41-48 | Full text

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Abstract:

Research by the Poznań Branch of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Man-agement (IMGW) sought to analyse the phenomenon of the occurrence of droughts. The identifi-cation and characterisation of dry spells was performed on the basis of a unified methodology taking into consideration atmospheric conditions, and the situation regarding surface and under-ground waters. Attention was paid to changes in the intensity and frequency of occurrence of this phenomenon in Poland. The general trend to the changes, was ascertained and a cyclical character or fluctuations to the phenomenon in the course of the analysed period sought.

Keywords: atmospheric drought, hydrological drought, intensity, frequency, changes, Poland

Przemysław Mager, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poznań Branch Dąbrowskiego 174/176, 60-594 Poznań, Poland
Maria Kuźnicka, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poznań Branch Dąbrowskiego 174/176, 60-594 Poznań, Poland
Małgorzata Kępińska--Kasprzak, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poznań Branch Dąbrowskiego 174/176, 60-594 Poznań, Poland
Ryszard Farat, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Poznań Branch Dąbrowskiego 174/176, 60-594 Poznań, Poland

Analysis of results of glo-bal climate models for Central Europe and Poland

Małgorzata Liszewska, Marzena Osuch

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 49-64 | Full text

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The paper presents an evaluation of climate simulations by the ocean and atmosphere general circulation models from the IPCC DDC for two regions: the Central European area and Poland. The comparisons have concerned air surface temperature, precipi-tation and wind speed. Control runs of the models for the period 1960-1989 and the results of the "Greenhouse Gas plus Sulphate" experiment for the next century 2000-2099 have been analysed. Re-analysed observed data have been used as the reference distributions for climate parameters.

Keywords: climate simulations, general circulation models, air temperature, precipitation, wind

Małgorzata Liszewska, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences Księcia Janusza 64, 01-452 Warszawa, Poland
Marzena Osuch, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences Księcia Janusza 64, 01-452 Warszawa, Poland

The role of forest ecosystems and wood in controlling the absorption and emission of carbon dioxide

Kazimierz Rykowski

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 65-88 | Full text

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Forests play a quadruple role in the processes of global change: (1) as a cause, i.e. a source of the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), predominantly in result of defore-station; (2) as a "victim" of global climatic change, due to the increased sensitivity of trees to pests and diseases; (3) as a beneficiary of global changes thanks to the "fertiliser effect"; (4) as a" remedy" for global changes thanks to their ability to sequester carbon. The role of forests depends thus on methods of management and the ways in which forest products are used. Proper forest management can improve carbon accumulation through forest stand reconstruction, tending of forests, introduction of second layer and understorey, increas-ing organic matter, resignation of clear-cutting, elimination of intensive soil preparation. The basic method of improving carbon balance in land ecosystems is change in land use, above all via afforestation. The paper discusses the effects of forestry operations dealing with carbon accumulation in the forest ecosystems.As equally important mechanism for improving carbon content in the atmosphere the author presents the repetitious recycling of timber production and its substitution in regard to materi-als and products requiring high amounts of energy input for manufacturing and utilisation (plastic, steel, aluminum, cement, bricks etc.) along with fossil sources of energy (timber combustion is neutral as far as emission of CO2 is concerned). Resignation from fossil energy sources, using the biomass energy and retention of carbon by the proper forestry management offers a chance to attain the planet Earth atmosphere according to the level existing before industrial revolution - within some 100 years to come. The Kyoto Protocol may help to improve the balance. The Protocol, actually a politico-economic inter-governmental agree-ment, is reviewed in the paper on the background of the Polish forest economy.

Keywords: forest management, climate change, carbon sequestration, wood utilisation

Kazimierz Rykowski, Forest Research Institute, Department of Ecology and Environmental Protection, Sekocin Las, 09-090 Raszyn, Poland

Climatic and oceanographic conditions in the southern Baltic area under an increasing CO2 concentration

Mirosław Miętus

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 89-98 | Full text

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The large-scale atmospheric sea-level pressure field over Europe and the North Atlantic has been downscaled by means of canonical analysis or redundancy analysis to some local climatic and oceanographic fields on the Polish coast of the Baltic Sea. These local fields are: wind at coastal stations; the wave field on the southern Baltic; air temperature on the coast; and salinity in the coastal zone. Scenarios concerning the future evolution of the local systems have been developed using results of some numerical experiments with GCMs, e.g. ECHAM1/LSG transient, ECHAM3 time-slice and ECHAM4/OPYC3 transient. Some significant changes should be expected, e. g. a continuation of the presently-observed rise in sea level with its alternation when the CO2 concentration triples, a slow increase in mean windspeed (especially in its zonal components), an increase in windspeed variability, an increase in the range of variability in wave height, a continuation of the observed trend for air temperature with alternation of this process during winter and a slow decrease of salinity in the coastal zone and open sea.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, climatic scenario, sea level, wave height, wind, air temperature, salinity, Baltic Sea, Polish coast

Research notes

Synoptic - climatic structure of the extreme air thermal phenomena in Poland

Zbigniew Ustrnul

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 99-110 | Full text

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Abstract:

The influence of atmospheric circulation upon extreme temperatures in Poland is being analysed. Maximum and minimum temperature values have been collected from 19 meteorological (synoptic) stations for the period 1951-1999. Simultaneously, a catalogue of circulation types after Osuchowska-Klein has also been used. An analysis of mean monthly and seasonal values is provided, as well as the conditional probability of selected temperature thresholds during the occurrence of particular types. Days with maximum temperatures over 25°C, minimum temperatures below -15°C and the absolute extremes for the selected stations have been investigated in detail. This confirmed a significant influence of atmospheric circu-lation upon the occurrence of extreme temperatures much larger than other local factors. The last part contains an analysis of the number of days with given thermal characteristics with respect to circulation indices.

Keywords: maximum and minimum temperature, extreme temperature values, atmos-pheric circulation, synoptic climatology

Zbigniew Ustrnul, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management P. Borowego 14, 30-215 Kraków, Poland

20th-century variability to daily maxima and minima of air temperature in the Sudetic Mountains

Bronisław Głowicki

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 111-116 | Full text

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The work presents the results of research on the variability to the 24-hour air-temperature maxima, minima and amplitudes noted in the period 1901-1998 on Śnieżka - the highest peak in the Sudetic Mountains. Analysis of a 98-year measurement series revealed the presence in the area of overall, statistically-significant upward trends for maxi-mum temperature (of 0.06°C/10 years) and minimum temperature (0.12°C/10 years), as well as a downward trend for 24-hour amplitude (of -0.06°C/10 years). This points to ongoing warming and a weakening of the annual cycle to air-temperature variations in the summital zone of the Sudetic Mountains. Research on variability within thermal sequences made use of the Mann-Kendall test and revealed steady upward trends for extreme temperatures in the second half of the 20th century only, as well as a downward trend for amplitude that has been confined to the last 25 years.

Keywords: variability of air temperature, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Sudetic Mountains

Bronisław Głowicki, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Wroclaw Branch, Parkowa 30, 51-616 Wroclaw, Poland

Variability in the cloud cover of the Karkonosze Mountains over the last century

Maria Dubicka

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 117-124 | Full text

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The study details an analysis of cloudiness conditions over Śnieżka Mountain in the years 1885-1995. The basis for this constituted timed observations (at 7,13 and 21 hrs) of cloud cover and mean daily cloud amount in particular months, seasons and the whole year, as well as the number of clear, overcost and foggy days. The variability to cloud cover was found to feature an upward trend of 0.4/100 years which is most clearly seen in the autumn quarter. There is a tendency for the number of clear days to decrease (by 22 days/100 years), and for the number of days with fog to increase, most especially in winter (10.4 days/100 years). A link between cloud cover and the frequency of occurrence of the western-circulation macrotype has been noticeable in the last 40 years.

Keywords: cloudiness, secular series, trend analysis, climate change, Sudetic Mountains

Maria Dubicka, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Geographical Institute, University of Wroclaw, Kosiby 6/8, 51-670 Wroclaw

Variability to the frequency of occurrence of masses of maritime air over northern and central Poland in the 18th to 20th centuries

Andrzej A. Marsz, Anna Styszyńska

Geographia Polonica (2000) vol. 73, iss. 2, pp. 125-129 | Full text

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Abstract:

The work seeks to reconstruct the frequency of occurrence of masses of ma-ritime air over the area of central Poland in the period between the 18th and 20th centuries. The input material was linked up with mean monthly air temperatures in Berlin (1702-1778) and Warsaw (1779-1998). Changes in the frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned air masses in the course of the year have been treated as a rough measure of variability to the atmospheric circulation over the area in question (advections from the west). It proved possible to identify 7 periods characterised by changes towards increases (H) or decreases (L), or else by oscillations around the mean (M) frequency of occurrence of masses of maritime air over Poland: I. (... 1702-1725 (?); L), II. (1726(?) -1761; H), III. (1762-1796; M), IV. (1797-1899; L), V. (1900-1928; H), VI. (1929-1950; L) and VII. (1951-1998..., H).

Keywords: climate change, 3 last centuries, atmospheric circulation, advections from the west, masses of maritime air, Poland

Andrzej A. Marsz, Department of Meteorology and Nautical Oceanography, Faculty of Navigation, Gdynia Maritime Academy Aleja Zjednoczenia 3, 81-345 Gdynia, Poland
Anna Styszyńska, Department of Meteorology and Nautical Oceanography, Faculty of Navigation, Gdynia Maritime Academy Aleja Zjednoczenia 3, 81-345 Gdynia, Poland