Geographia Polonica (2021) vol. 94, iss. 3

Stages of spatial dispersion of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland in the first six months (4 March-20 September, 2020)

Przemysław Śleszyński

Geographia Polonica (2021) vol. 94, iss. 3, pp. 305-324 | Full text
doi: https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0207

The article is a continuation of research published by the author elsewhere (Śleszyński, 2020). The elaboration presents the regularity of spatial distribution of infections during the first six months after the detection of SARS-CoV-2 coronovirus in Poland under strong lockdown conditions. The main aim is to try to determine the basic temporal-spatial patterns and to answer the questions: to what extent the phenomenon was ordered and to what extent it was chaotic, whether there are any particular features of spread, whether the infectionis concentrated or dispersed and whether the spreading factors in Poland are similar to those observed in other countries. Daily data by county (poviat) were collected by Rogalski's team (2020). The data were aggregated to weekly periods (7 days) and then the regularity of spatial distribution was searched for using the cartogram method, time series shifts, rope correlation between the intensity of infections in different periods, Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index (HHI) and cluster analysis. A spatial typology of infection development in the population was also performed. Among other things, it was shown that during the first period (about 100 days after the first case), the infections became more and more spatially concentrated and then dispersed. Differences were also shown in relation to the spread of the infection compared to observations from other countries, i.e. no relation to population density and level of urbanization.

Keywords: pandemic, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, medical geography, geoepidemiology, spatial diffusion, lockdown, Poland

Przemysław Śleszyński [psleszyn@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization PAS