Geographia Polonica (2026) vol. 99, iss. 2
Sea-level trends along the Polish coast in the context of changes in the global ocean and the Baltic Sea
Geographia Polonica (2026) vol. 99, iss. 2, pp. 147-165 | 
Full text
doi: https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0321
Abstract
Sea level changes are among the key manifestations of contemporary climate change. This review article presents the current state of knowledge regarding global and regional drivers of sea-level variability, with particular emphasis on the specific characteristics of the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea basin and the role of post-glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) processes. A review of available studies indicates that the Polish coast is characterized by an increasing trend in relative mean sea levels (RSL), which have been rising at a rate of 2 mm·yr-1 since the mid-20th century – averaging 15 cm over the last 75 years. The main causes of these changes are global factors (global mean sea-level rise – GMSL) and, to a lesser extent, coastal subsidence processes. Satellite and tide gauge data in the 21st century indicate significant acceleration in both relative (RSL) and absolutesea level (ASL) rise along European and southern Baltic coasts, directly resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Projections of further sea-level rise are deeply alarming for Polish administration. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the rate of RSL rise may reach 6-7 mm·yr-1– more than three times higher than from the mid-20th century to present - which further increases the risk of erosion and storm flooding for the Polish coast.
Keywords: sea-level trends, Baltic Sea, global ocean, Polish coast, relative sea-level change (RSL), absolute sea level change (ASL)
[tomasz.wolski@usz.edu.pl], Institute of Marine Sciences, University of Szczecin, Wąska 13, 71-415 Szczecin, Poland
