Geographia Polonica (1999) vol. 72, iss. 2

Abstract

This paper discusses problems concerning the negotiation process of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the Kyoto Protocol, at international level. In spite of a strong lobby trying to delay the decisions obliging countries to limit their greenhouse gas emissions (mostly from fossil fuels), over 150 countries signed the UNFCCC in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, then ratified this Convention aiming at the stabilisa-tion of greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by 2000 and next negotiated the Kyoto Protocol with new commitments regarding the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases in the period 2008-2012.

Keywords: global climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Maciej Sadowski, Climate Protection Center, Institute of Environmental Protection Kolektorska 4, 01-692 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

The atmosphere exchanges heat, moisture and momentum with other climate subsystems. All these interactions are modeled to a different degree of the accuracy, depend-ing on the quality and resolution of data used. This paper describes some applications of climate models in agriculture and puts forward the argument, that recent climate models are very close to numerical weather prediction models. The physical parameterization approach implemented first in climate models, is now applied in a useful way to everyday agricultural management.

Keywords: climate models, agriculture, interactions between climate system components

Bogumił Jakubiak, Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, Warsaw University Pawińskiego 5a, 02-106 Warsaw, Poland

Abstract

Forests can contribute to increases in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (deforestation, bad harvest), are affected by changes in climate (change of natural range of forest tree species) and at the same time offer a unique opportunity to help mitigate future climate change. Forests contribute to the fight against the greenhouse effect in three ways: (1) carbon sequestering; (2) CO2 avoidance through substitution by wood of energy-intensive materials such as plastics, aluminium, steal, cement and brick, (3) CO2 avoidance by using timber instead of fossil fuels for generating energy. The effect of utilization of wood is even greater than that of fixation. Carbon storage would be optimized in plantation forests (refore-station and afforestation), harvested at the time of maximum mean annual increment, when the lifetime of the products exceeds the rotation period. The rate of carbon absorption by trees and forests is a function of growth and age - the rate is higher when they are fast-growing and young. There are some possibilities to increase the carbon accumulation ability of our forests: reconstruction of stands into ones of more adequate species composition; tending of the forest and to the creating of an opportunity to obtain so-called "thinning-induced incre-ment"; the introduction of an understorey which could result in a increment in standing volume; the increase in the fraction of humus in forest soils which could be regulated by means of a preference for the forest regeneration model; resignation from clear-cutting and the afforesta-tion of abandoned agricultural land. The role of Polish forests in reducing global change is not so important as far as the proportional contribution to world forest cover is concerned (0,002%) but from the domestic point of view and in the light of the obligation under the Kyoto Protocol, forest, forestry and wood utilization present a high interest for our environmental policy and an important element in the national development strategy into the 21st century.

Keywords: carbon sequestration, wood utilization, forest management, climate change

Kazimierz Rykowski, Forest Research Institute, Department of Ecology and Environmental Protection, Sekocin Las, 09-090 Raszyn, Poland

Abstract

The response of litter decomposition to changing climate was studied on a transect set in Central Europe along parallel 52°N. Rates of decomposition of pine forest litter were measured for one year in 15 stands of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the 1500 km (20°) W-E transect. The stands were carefully selected on the basis of existing maps and data banks, and were similar as regards topography, soil type, tree-stand age and composition of the herb-layer. Long-term climatic data were assigned to each stand from surrounding climate stations and indexes of climate continentality - an important characteristic for a lati-tudinal transect - were determined.Litter-bags with Scots pine needles, wood material, cones or mixed litter were used. Of the different litters tested, needles and natural mixed litter displayed the best correlation between decomposition rate and climatic indices. No effect of climate on wood decay was found. Along the gradient of oceanic and continental climates, with only minor differences in average annual temperature or AET (Actual Evapotranspiration) between sites, almost 40% of the variability in rates of needle and mixed-litter decomposition was explained by the degree of continentality, expressed as annual temperature amplitude, temperatures of the coldest and warmest months (January and July) and annual amplitude of precipitation. The relationship with precipitation amplitude is especially interesting as this index is not usually used in studies on litter decomposition.The relationship between decomposition rate and the aforementioned climatic indices, was augmented by significant differences between sites classified in three categories according to diversity of plant cover. Decay was slowest on pure stands of Scots pine, significantly faster on mixed pine stands and fastest on anthropogenically-modified pine stands.

Keywords: decomposition, pine forest litter, transects, pine needles, cones

Alicja I. Breymeyer [a.breym@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00‑818 Warszawa, Poland
Ryszard Laskowski, Department of Ecosystem Ecology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Jagiellonian University, Ingardena 6, 30-060 Krakow, Poland.

Abstract

Estimates were made of the effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes of a change in real land-use patterns to simulated simplified and mosaic agricultural landscapes. Climate change in Poland due to the enhanced greenhouse effect was assumed after Jager (1988). Land-use changes have stronger impacts on the transport of energy into the atmosphere by convection and évapotranspiration than climate change to 2050 or 2075. These results were assessed by analyses carried out at than landscape level as well as at the scale of the predicted region and the whole of Poland. The effects of global climate change can be mitigated to some extent by manipulation of the land-use pattern.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, land-use, plant cover, heat fluxes, évapotranspiration

Andrzej Kędziora, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Lech Ryszkowski, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Abstract

Principal findings concerning the balance of GHG emissions, absorption and retention in Polish agriculture are discussed in relation to the anticipated enhancement of the greenhouse effect. Balances for GHGs on Polish farms oriented towards crop and animal production are presented, along with strategies for the reduction of GHG emissions in Polish agriculture based firstly on better organization of agricultural production, e.g. increased effec-tiveness of milk production, better use of agricultural land, the introduction of biological progress into plant and animal production and the introduction of a new generation of agri-cultural machines. Strategies are also based on the introduction of plants for the production of renewable energy sources and other industrial uses.

Keywords: greenhouse effect, agriculture, GHG, emission, absorption, retention, farms, Poland, mitigation

Emil Nalborczyk, Plant Physiology Department, Warsaw Agricultural University, Rakowiecka 26/30, 02-528 Warsaw, Poland
Stefan Pietkiewicz, Plant Physiology Department, Warsaw Agricultural University, Rakowiecka 26/30, 02-528 Warsaw, Poland
Tadeusz Łoboda, Plant Physiology Department, Warsaw Agricultural University, Rakowiecka 26/30, 02-528 Warsaw, Poland
Leszek Sieczko, Department of Statistics and Experimental Design, Warsaw Agricultural University, Rakowiecka 26/30, 02-528 Warsaw, Poland

Abstract

Several countries including Poland are evaluating possible scenarios of climate change and their effect on agriculture, which include aspects of plant protection. Two apprai-sals of the consequences of climate change for Polish agriculture consider four possible scenarios based on GISS and GFDL models. The National Study of Climate Change considers that changes will affect about 60% of the country and that their consequences will be relatively great due to changes of the water balance in soils.Possible impacts of global climate change on the occurrence, distribution and economic significance of the pests, pathogens and weeds on various continents and in Poland are discussed.

Keywords: Climate change, global warming, plant protection, greenhouse effect, pests, weeds, pathogens.

Jerzy J. Lipa, Institute of Plant Protection, Miczurina 20, 60-318 Poznań, Poland

Lech Ryszkowski, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Andrzej Kędziora, Agricultural University of Poznań Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland