Geographia Polonica (2013) vol. 86, iss. 4

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The attempt to validate the applicability of two climate models for the evaluation of heat wave related mortality in Warsaw in the 21st century

Magdalena Kuchcik

Geographia Polonica (2013) vol. 86, iss. 4, pp. 295-311
doi: https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.2013.25

Abstract

In the analysis of the potential of applying models to estimate threat of heat waves in Poland up to the end of the 21stcentury, two discrepant climate change models: the MPI‑M‑REMO‑ECHAM5 and DMI‑HIRHAM5‑ARPEGE have been used. In this regard, the maximum air temperature was analysed. The accepted definition of a heat wave was 3 and 5 consecutivedays of temperatures ≥30°C. According to the more realistic ARPEGE model, after 2040, the number of 3 day heatwaves will rise by 370% and after 2070 – 460%. In Warsaw, the extent of possible mortality rates due to cardiovasculardisease in heat waves amounted to +134% in the period after 2070 according to the ARPEGE model.

Keywords: climate models, heat waves, modelled air temperature, mortality, Poland

Magdalena Kuchcik [mkuchcik@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences Twarda 51/55, 00-818 Warsaw: Poland