Andrej Alekseevič Veličko

Articles

Approaches to assessment of relief-forming processes under conditions of global warming (with reference to Northern Eurasia within the boundaries of the former USSR

Andrej Alekseevič Veličko, Irina I. Spasskaâ

Geographia Polonica (2011) vol. 84, Special Issue Part 1, pp. 179-187 | Full text
doi: https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.2011.S1.12

Further information

Abstract:

Palaeoclimatic characteristics based on paleogeographic reconstructions for the optimumsof the Holocene and the last interglacial appear to be close in estimated range of globalwarming to those expected in the current century according to IPCC (scenario A1B). Reconstructionsof the state of environmental components in Northern Eurasia under given seasonaland annual temperature and precipitations allowed developing scenarios of expected changes inecosystems within individual landscape zones. Regions of most probable appearance of instabilityin ecosystems are mostly confined to northern lowlands (permafrost degradation), plains inthe southern East European Plain (accelerated erosion) and southern mountains (mudflows,landslides, etc.).

Keywords: palaeoclimates, global warming, ecosystems, prognosis, relief-forming processes, Northern Eurasia

Andrej Alekseevič Veličko, Laboratory of Evolutionary Geography, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per. 29, Moscow 119017, Russia
Irina I. Spasskaâ, Laboratory of Evolutionary Geography, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per. 29, Moscow 119017, Russia

Changes in Vegetation and Soils of the East European Plain to Be Expected in the 21st Century Due to the Anthropogenic Changes in Climate

Andrej Alekseevič Veličko, O. K. Borisova, E. M. Zelikson, T. D. Morozova

Geographia Polonica (2005) vol. 77, iss. 2, pp. 35-46 | Full text

Further information

Abstract:

The paleogeographic analog method has been applied to estimate future changes inthe state of the main components of the environment on the East European Plain at three timeintervals within the 21st century (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). Two warm epochs of the past, theHolocene optimum (c.5.5 kyr BP) and the Mikulino (Eemian) interglacial optimum (c.125 kyrBP) have been chosen as the paleoanalogs. In the first decades of the 21st century the most probablechanges involve herbaceous plants and tree regrowth. It will only be by the end of the centurythat tree-species penetration of new areas and shifts of zonal boundaries may be expected.The predicted increase in potential evaporation may result in a reduction of wetland areas andslower peat formation. In the north of the Plain, soil-forming processes will presumably respondto warming mainly via accelerated humification. Somewhat enhanced leaching would be typicalfor the subzone of podzolic soils at the end of the century, thus bringing about the initial phase ofsod-podzolic soil formation. The area of chestnut soils will show a tendency to decrease as comparedwith the present day. Some undesirable geomorphological processes and natural hazardsare also considered.

Keywords: warming of climate, changes in vegetation and soils, the paleogeographic analog method, East European Plain

Andrej Alekseevič Veličko, Laboratory of Evolutionary Geography, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny per. 29, Moscow 119017, Russia
O. K. Borisova, Russian Academy of Sciences Staromonetny per. 29 109017 Moscow, Russia
E. M. Zelikson, Russian Academy of Sciences Staromonetny per. 29 109017 Moscow, Russia
T. D. Morozova, Russian Academy of Sciences Staromonetny per. 29 109017 Moscow, Russia