Piotr Korcelli

Abstract

The point of departure in the search for the emergence of international urban systems must be offered by studies on the development of national urban systems.The project on Urban Systems and Urban Networking in the Baltic Sea Region (USUN) has shown that in the 1990s the national urban systems throughout the Baltic Sea Region experienced a concentration of economic activity in the largest cities. However, some medium-sized regional centres situated outside national core areas also proved dynamic, something that was revealed by studies on urban networking undertaken within the project. In this article, the concept of urban systems is examined, with recent trends and challenges discussed, together with the prospects for a balancing of the development of urban systems through a fostering of the dynamics of second-layer cities with higher education functions taken as an example.

Keywords: national urban system, inter-urban competition and cooperation, second-layer cities, urban policy, Baltic Sea Region

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland
Niels Boje Groth, Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute (DFLRI) H0rsholm Kongevej 11 DK-2970 Horsholm, Denmark
Ewa Nowosielska, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Twarda 51/55, 00‑818 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

The article discusses the prospective role and rankings of the major Polish citieswithin the emerging European urban system. Special emphasis is placed on the present andfuture impact of Berlin upon Poland's urban network. It is concluded that cities in the Westernregions of Poland, such as Poznań and Wrocław, will be subject to both the positive and thenegative effects related to the expansion of Berlin - the extension of its zone of influence andits metropolitan shadow. Conversely, one can expect that the development of Warsaw willnot be adversely affected by its competition with Berlin. The recent successful transformationof Warsaw's economy suggests that the city, in fact its urbanized region, has been graduallyassuming the role of Poland's main economic core region, the position traditionally held bythe Upper Silesian conurbation. Warsaw has also good chances to become a major commercialand transportation centre in East-Central Europe.

Keywords: urban systems, inter-urban competition, metropolitan functions, economic restructuring

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

Several counter-initiative arguments related to urban development in East-Central Europe are proposed in this article. Firstly, the concept of the socialist city is shown to be only partly relevant in the present context. Secondly, limited evidence is found in support of the often anticipated rapid population concentration in the national urban systems. Thirdly, major metropolitan centres in East-Central Europe are shown to be entering into competition with their counterparts in West-Central Europe. This process may even overshadow the so far dominant patterns of metropolitan interdependence within the region.

Keywords: Urban restructuring, national urban systems, metropolitan centres, the socialist city, East-Central Europe

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

The pattern of population growth in the region of Warsaw has beencharacterized by considerable temporal variation. Any attempt at forecasting thefuture change should be based upon sets of alternative assumptions. Such anapproach is followed in the present paper. Results of three population projections,derived from observed demographic data for 1978, 1983 and 1988, respectively, aremutually compared and evaluated. The author anticipates an acceleration ofpopulation growth of Warsaw in the late 1990s.

Keywords: population projections, multiregional system, components of population change

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

The ageing and the elderly are among the common key-wôrds in the social science literature today. One more specific theme, i.e. migrations by the elderly population, is of a particular interest to geographers as well as to some demographers and sociologists. The elderly migrants are found to reveal distinct behaviour and motivation patterns, hence this branch of studies is clearly separated from the main stream research on human migrations, and often closely interlinked with other lines of research on the elderly populations (see for example, Cribier 1982; Warnes 1982; Warnes and Law 1983).In Poland, the studies on elderly migrations were introduced by M. Latuch in the early 1970s (see: Latuch 1974, 1977; Bondaruk 1976) and focused initially on magnitude and causes of out-migration by elderly persons from the major cities, in particular Warsaw. More recently, a comprehensive analysis of social and economic factors of elderly migration was carried out by K. Stolarczyk (1985). Her study, was based on a special survey among a sample of persons aged 60 years and over who changed their place of residence during four selected months in 1979. In a parallel study, based on current population registration data, E. Frątczak (1984) attempted to estimate the role of rural-to-urban migrations, against fertility and morality change, in the growth of the elderly population numbers in Poland between 1950 and 1978. Finally, P. Korcelli and A. Fotrykowska (1986) discussed intependencies between mobility rates and family status of elderly migrants, and presented an analysis of migrations of the elderly by age and cause.The present paper looks into spatial patterns of the eiderly population and the recent configurations of elderly migration in Poland. Basic reference units comprise 49 vivodships, i.e. administrative regions of the upper level. Some migration data are also presented for a more aggregated division into urban and rural areas. Geographical distribution is an important dimension from the social policy perspective. Compared with other countries in Europe, the ageing of the population of Poland is neither very advanced nor particularly rapid. However, spatial concentration of the elderly popula-tion, as well as specific patterns of its redistribution, generate a number of policy issues on the regional and local level. Such problems range from the provision of specialized services to the maintenance of housing and the utilization of farmland.

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland
Alina Potrykowska, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

At the micro-level, the main factors of internal migration in Poland have been associated with "possibilities of improvement in the economic and social position of migrants, the desire for better living conditions, and the expectation of an improved social and physical environment" (Dziewoński and Korcelli 1981, p. 29). These mechanisms were, at the marco-level, translated traditionally into the interdependence between migration and industrial/urban development. According to Dziewoński et al. (1977, p. 144): "After 1950 the magnitude and directions of internal migrations have mainly been influenced by industrialization and urbanization pocesses". Furthermore, "industrialization represented the main driving force of urban growth". Indeed, 140 out of 241 urban centres with 10 000 inhabitants or more in 1960 had at least 50 per cent of their total employment in industry and construction in 1960. (Ibid., p. 316).The peak in internal migration flows occurred in the mid-fifties when crude migration rates amounted to 50 — 55 per thousand population. (Reference is made to the period since 1948, when large shifts of the population due to post-war resettlement have come to an end.) During the following decade the rates gradually declined to the level of 26-27 per thousand, as a result of the contraction of industrial investment outlays and new farm policies. Interdependence of migration and industrial change, however, still persisted. Districts with net migration gain accounted for 77 per cent of the total inmigration, 64 per cent of employment growth and 88 per cent of all new investments in industry between 1966—1970 (Stpiczyński 1972). The 1970s brought an acceleration of urban/industrial growth together with a growth of spatial mobility. Owing to administrative reform in 1974 which involved an increase in the size of basic reporting units, the latter development has not been reflected in current population statistics. Instead, migration rates during the seventies appeared to be at the same level as during the sixties. This statistical artifact has only partly been accounted for in relevant demographic and geographic literature.

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

If recent trends continue, the extent of inter-regional migration in Europe willdrop, by the mid-1980s, far below the level of the mid-1970s.1 This may be solelydue to the evolving age structure of the population, and in particular to thediminishing proportion in the total of those age groups traditionally characterizedby the highest propensity to move. If the increase in the demand for labourcontinues to be slow, the turnover of jobs on the regional scale may also decrease,thus reinforcing what may be viewed as a period of relative stability in urbanand regional patterns.

Contrary to the'situation prevailing in the developed countries recent experiencethroughout the Third World suggests an acceleration of population flows betweenindividual regions and from rural to urban areas. Such intensive migrations aregenerated both by continuous demographic dynamics and by the inevitable economicstructural change, which results in large-scale transfers toward centers of secondaryand tertiary occupations.

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

The purpose of this review paper is essentially empirical: to document and assess re-cent changes in the spatial structure of national urban systems in a comparative inter-national context and to pose a series of questions for subsequent reasearch and theoret-ical analysis. What types and spatial configurations of urban systems are emerging? Does the trend towards a spatially-decentralized urban system represent a short-term perturba-tion in the spatial development of capitalist economic systems or is it a long-term process of adjustment in the settlement pattern of all advanced economies? Does this adjustment process accelerate or decelerate under conditions of slow (or zero) popu-lation growth? What happens to the variance of urban growth rates under such condi-tions? Will the trend be reversed as some observers argue, if and when the current recession ends? What types of modifications to existing concepts, theories and metrics of urban systems appear to be needed? What are the potential implications of these trends for public policy? Finally, has there been a convergence or divergence in the structure of urban systems among industrialized countries — both in market-based and socialist economies — and between those countries and the Third World? These are the kinds of questions addressed in an admittedly preliminary fashion, in this paper.

Larry S. Bourne, Centre for Urban and Community Studies, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland
Olof Warneryd, Department of Social and Economic Geography, University of Lund, Lund, Sweden

Niles M. Hansen, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

This paper attempts to interpret the existing theory of spatial structure of urban agglomerations, and their change, from the planning perspective. A brief review of some of the major theoretical approaches is therefore in order. In a certain sense, these approaches are all useful from the planner's point of view since they build a stock of knowledge and information which is needed both at the plan study and the plan design stage. For instance, theoretical patterns of population density and directions of their evolution, following the city growth, its age and technological improvements in transportation, have to be taken into account while planning the future structure of urban agglomerations, since this may constitute one of the prerequisites for plan accomplishment. Another example is the need to consider the increasing spatial mobility of pop-ulation — a phenomenon widely discussed in the literature on urban studies. The planning implications are still more evident in the case of the spatial socio-demographic structure of urban areas. The realization of such a vital goal as the minimization of spatial variations in the distribution of those population and housing characteristics which have been identified as major dimensions of socio-ecological space, requires the knowledge of conditions which give rise to partic-ular variations.

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

The present article 1 has two specific objectives. The first aim is to reduce the multitude of generalizations found in the contemporary literature on intra-urban structure into a set of basic theoretical statements and postulates. The second aim is to demonstrate to what extent individual theories and statements reflect particular social, political and cultural contexts and to show which approaches, and why, may be regarded as of a more or less universal range of applicability.

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland

Abstract

Several authors have recently suggested that urban growth can be representedas a wave-like diffusion process (Blumenfeld 1954, Boyce 1966, Morrill1968 and 1970, Korcelli 1969, 1970 and 1972). It may be assumed that this lineof research will also expand in the future. Its relation to other approaches, aswell as some insights it gives into the nature of the spread of urbanization, arediscussed elswhere (Korcelli 1972). This form of analysis, however, beside certainadvantages it offers, brings also some dangers, which can not be overemphasized.Two particular problems may be noted:

The improvement of the concepts has not been supported by an extensivebody of sound, empirical evidence. This, in part, is a consequence of scarcity ofadequate data, especially when large spatial and temporal series should be employed.If it persists, such a gap may eventually prevent further developmentof the theory.

The second problem relates to the methodology itself. While it is usuallytempting to classify a phenomenon under investigation as a part of a broadersystem, one may loose, by doing so, some of its rather essential properties. Thefollowing citation from Beckmann (1970, p. 116) well illustrates the point:"Although it is interesting that the same mathematical equation appears toapply to a particle, heat diffusion, and to human migration, this conclusionshould not be accepted uncritically. After all, we do not seek to reproduce thewell-known equations of mathematical physics but to develop models that bestreflect economic conditions".

The objections of this paper are, therefore, twofold. First, we attempt tofind some statistical evidence, however limited, for the aforementioned conceptsof urban growth. The method applied is believed to be consistent with the theorytested. Second, we want to trace, on the basis of the data employed, some of thespecific features of the urban growth process, as opposed to other spatial diffusionprocesses.

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland
Beniamin Kostrubiec, Wrocław University

Piotr Korcelli [korcelli@twarda.pan.pl], Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakowskie Przedmieście 30, 00-927 Warszawa, Poland