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Roman Mańczak

Articles

Models of Impacts of Hydrometeorological Extremes

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Roman Mańczak, Iwona Pińskwar, Maciej Radziejewski

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 165-180 | Full text

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Abstract

Mathematical modelling of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts was discussed.An introduction to the notion of modelling is proposed. Annual extremes in temperaturerecords were examined, also on the basis of qualitative indices, when quantitative data are notavailable due to cost restrictions. Trends in long time series of records were studied. Concepts asregards projections of risk of extreme events (such as floods) are also discussed; including synthesisof projection models for a range of climate impacts. The facets of uncertainty are also dealtwith. A conceptualization of the risk in the load-resistance framework is proposed.

Keywords: mathematical modelling; climate impact; hydrometeorological extremes; curve fitting; trend

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Maciej Radziejewski, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Estimation of Damage Caused by Extreme Weather Events, with an Emphasis on Floods

Piotr Matczak, Roman Mańczak, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 35-46 | Full text

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Abstract

Damage caused by extreme weather events is projected to increase on account of climatechange. However, the assessment of losses is a weak point of the systems concerning preparednessfor and management of weather extremes. Methods of ex post loss assessment arediscussed here, with particular emphasis on floods. Approaches based on restoration value andmarket value are presented. Methods addressing indirect tangible losses and intangible damageare also reviewed. Restrictions and ambiguities connected with the methods are presented, anddifficulties with data collection discussed.

Keywords: Loss estimation, extreme weather events, floods, intangible damage, tangible damage

Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland