Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Articles

Models of Impacts of Hydrometeorological Extremes

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Roman Mańczak, Iwona Pińskwar, Maciej Radziejewski

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 165-180 | Full text

Further information

Abstract:

Mathematical modelling of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts was discussed.An introduction to the notion of modelling is proposed. Annual extremes in temperaturerecords were examined, also on the basis of qualitative indices, when quantitative data are notavailable due to cost restrictions. Trends in long time series of records were studied. Concepts asregards projections of risk of extreme events (such as floods) are also discussed; including synthesisof projection models for a range of climate impacts. The facets of uncertainty are also dealtwith. A conceptualization of the risk in the load-resistance framework is proposed.

Keywords: mathematical modelling; climate impact; hydrometeorological extremes; curve fitting; trend

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Maciej Radziejewski, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Projections of Climate Extremes in Poland

Małgorzata Szwed, Dariusz Graczyk, Iwona Pińskwar, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 191-202 | Full text

Further information

Abstract:

The climate change projections for Poland are consistent in foreseeing overall temperatureincrease in the coming decades. Precipitation is projected to decrease in summer (thoughthis finding is not robust, being model-dependent) and to increase in winter. It is expected thatthe occurrence of climate extremes over Poland may change in the future, warmer climate.In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centre HadRM3-PRECIS regional model simulations (for the SRES A2 scenario in three model experiments)in Poland were used to study temperature and precipitation extremes defined according to thespecification made in the Integrated Project entitled “Extreme meteorological and hydrologicalevents”. Climate extremes in the control period, 1961–1990, were compared with those in theprojection period, 2071–2100.

Keywords: climate change, climate model, extremes, precipitation, temperature, Poland

Małgorzata Szwed, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Dariusz Graczyk, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Estimation of Damage Caused by Extreme Weather Events, with an Emphasis on Floods

Piotr Matczak, Roman Mańczak, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 35-46 | Full text

Further information

Abstract:

Damage caused by extreme weather events is projected to increase on account of climatechange. However, the assessment of losses is a weak point of the systems concerning preparednessfor and management of weather extremes. Methods of ex post loss assessment arediscussed here, with particular emphasis on floods. Approaches based on restoration value andmarket value are presented. Methods addressing indirect tangible losses and intangible damageare also reviewed. Restrictions and ambiguities connected with the methods are presented, anddifficulties with data collection discussed.

Keywords: Loss estimation, extreme weather events, floods, intangible damage, tangible damage

Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Preface

Preface

Jacek A. Jania, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 5-8 | Full text

Further information

Keywords:

Jacek A. Jania, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia ul. Będzińska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Articles

Extreme Hydro-meteorological Events and their Impacts. From the Global down to the Regional Scale

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Jacek A. Jania

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 9-24 | Full text

Further information

Abstract:

Despite the progress in technology, the risk of weather-related disasters has not beeneradicated and never will be. On the global scale, disasters are becoming both more frequentand more destructive, annually causing material losses worth tens of billions of Euros, as well asseveral thousand fatalities. Furthermore, catastrophic weather events have been the subject of arapid upward trend, with the value of material damage increasing by an order of magnitude overthe last four decades, in inflation-adjusted monetary units. There is now an increasing body ofevidence of ongoing planetary climate change (global warming), which has brought about considerablechanges where extreme hydro-meteorological events are concerned, and is likely to leadto even more marked changes in the future. Typically, changes in extremes are more pronouncedand exert more impact than changes in mean values. Among the extremes on the rise are thenumber of hot days and tropical nights; the duration and intensity of heatwaves; precipitationintensity (and resulting floods, landslides and mudflows); the frequency, length and severity ofdroughts; glacier and snow melt; tropical cyclone intensity and sea level and storm surges. In turn,a ubiquitous decrease in cold extremes (number of cool days and nights, and frost days) is projected.Increases in climate extremes associated with climate change are likely to cause physicaldamage and population displacement, as well as having adverse effects on food production andthe availability and quality of fresh water. A discussion of hydro-meteorological extremes andtheir impacts is therefore provided here in relation to a range of scales, and with the context foradaptation and mitigation also being alluded to.

Keywords: extreme events; hydrometeorology; climate variability; climate change; climate change impacts

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Jacek A. Jania, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia ul. Będzińska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland