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Iwona Pińskwar

Articles

Models of Impacts of Hydrometeorological Extremes

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Roman Mańczak, Iwona Pińskwar, Maciej Radziejewski

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 165-180 | Full text

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Abstract

Mathematical modelling of hydrometeorological extremes and their impacts was discussed.An introduction to the notion of modelling is proposed. Annual extremes in temperaturerecords were examined, also on the basis of qualitative indices, when quantitative data are notavailable due to cost restrictions. Trends in long time series of records were studied. Concepts asregards projections of risk of extreme events (such as floods) are also discussed; including synthesisof projection models for a range of climate impacts. The facets of uncertainty are also dealtwith. A conceptualization of the risk in the load-resistance framework is proposed.

Keywords: mathematical modelling; climate impact; hydrometeorological extremes; curve fitting; trend

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Maciej Radziejewski, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Projections of Climate Extremes in Poland

Małgorzata Szwed, Dariusz Graczyk, Iwona Pińskwar, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Geographia Polonica (2007) vol. 80, iss. 2, pp. 191-202 | Full text

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Abstract

The climate change projections for Poland are consistent in foreseeing overall temperatureincrease in the coming decades. Precipitation is projected to decrease in summer (thoughthis finding is not robust, being model-dependent) and to increase in winter. It is expected thatthe occurrence of climate extremes over Poland may change in the future, warmer climate.In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centre HadRM3-PRECIS regional model simulations (for the SRES A2 scenario in three model experiments)in Poland were used to study temperature and precipitation extremes defined according to thespecification made in the Integrated Project entitled “Extreme meteorological and hydrologicalevents”. Climate extremes in the control period, 1961–1990, were compared with those in theprojection period, 2071–2100.

Keywords: climate change, climate model, extremes, precipitation, temperature, Poland

Małgorzata Szwed, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Dariusz Graczyk, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland