Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Abstract

The climate change projections for Poland are consistent in foreseeing overall temperatureincrease in the coming decades. Precipitation is projected to decrease in summer (thoughthis finding is not robust, being model-dependent) and to increase in winter. It is expected thatthe occurrence of climate extremes over Poland may change in the future, warmer climate.In this study, daily temperature and precipitation data from the Hadley Centre HadRM3-PRECIS regional model simulations (for the SRES A2 scenario in three model experiments)in Poland were used to study temperature and precipitation extremes defined according to thespecification made in the Integrated Project entitled “Extreme meteorological and hydrologicalevents”. Climate extremes in the control period, 1961–1990, were compared with those in theprojection period, 2071–2100.

Keywords: climate change, climate model, extremes, precipitation, temperature, Poland

Małgorzata Szwed, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Dariusz Graczyk, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Iwona Pińskwar, Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Abstract

Damage caused by extreme weather events is projected to increase on account of climatechange. However, the assessment of losses is a weak point of the systems concerning preparednessfor and management of weather extremes. Methods of ex post loss assessment arediscussed here, with particular emphasis on floods. Approaches based on restoration value andmarket value are presented. Methods addressing indirect tangible losses and intangible damageare also reviewed. Restrictions and ambiguities connected with the methods are presented, anddifficulties with data collection discussed.

Keywords: Loss estimation, extreme weather events, floods, intangible damage, tangible damage

Roman Mańczak, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, 60-809 Poznań ul. Bukowska 19, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Jacek A. Jania, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia ul. Będzińska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland

Abstract

Despite the progress in technology, the risk of weather-related disasters has not beeneradicated and never will be. On the global scale, disasters are becoming both more frequentand more destructive, annually causing material losses worth tens of billions of Euros, as well asseveral thousand fatalities. Furthermore, catastrophic weather events have been the subject of arapid upward trend, with the value of material damage increasing by an order of magnitude overthe last four decades, in inflation-adjusted monetary units. There is now an increasing body ofevidence of ongoing planetary climate change (global warming), which has brought about considerablechanges where extreme hydro-meteorological events are concerned, and is likely to leadto even more marked changes in the future. Typically, changes in extremes are more pronouncedand exert more impact than changes in mean values. Among the extremes on the rise are thenumber of hot days and tropical nights; the duration and intensity of heatwaves; precipitationintensity (and resulting floods, landslides and mudflows); the frequency, length and severity ofdroughts; glacier and snow melt; tropical cyclone intensity and sea level and storm surges. In turn,a ubiquitous decrease in cold extremes (number of cool days and nights, and frost days) is projected.Increases in climate extremes associated with climate change are likely to cause physicaldamage and population displacement, as well as having adverse effects on food production andthe availability and quality of fresh water. A discussion of hydro-meteorological extremes andtheir impacts is therefore provided here in relation to a range of scales, and with the context foradaptation and mitigation also being alluded to.

Keywords: extreme events; hydrometeorology; climate variability; climate change; climate change impacts

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Research Centre for the Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Jacek A. Jania, Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia ul. Będzińska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland